NFL fandom is an emotional rollercoaster.
A season seems like a disaster one moment, and people are making Super Bowl hotel reservations the next. The Seattle Seahawks and the Buffalo Bills have each provided fans such feelings this year, and the two teams will set off another round of positive or negative vibes at 1:05 p.m. Sunday (FOX TV, KIRO Radio).
One week ago, people wondered if the Seahawks, fresh off three straight losses, would ever win again. Could Mike Macdonald get them back on the rails? The answer to both questions proved to be “yes” after Seattle traveled to Atlanta last week and thumped the Falcons 34-14 to improve to 4-3.
Buffalo is 5-2, but the Bills have also taken fans for a ride this year. Like the Seahawks, Buffalo began the season with three wins. Then came a crushing 35-10 loss to the Ravens, followed by a 23-20 last-second loss to Houston. They eked out a three-point road win over the New York Jets, and then toasted the Tennessee Titans 34-10.
Both teams restored hope last week. Who will lose it this week? Here are three keys that could determine the mental state of two fan bases for a least a week.
Ryan Grubb patience meter
The Seahawks offensive coordinator likes to call deep passing plays, and the Buffalo Bills defense is set up to take that away. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith leads the NFL with 69 throws of 15 or more yards (per Pro Football Focus). The Bills, on the other hand, have allowed just 18 completions of 15 or more yards. Buffalo uses two-deep safety looks more than all but two teams this year in an effort to take away the big play.
“They don’t give up explosive plays,” Grubb said on Thursday. “They’re going to keep the ball in front of them. I just think they execute what they do at a really high level. You just don’t see very many (coverage) busts at all on film.”
The Bills, who allow 132.9 yards rushing per game (20th in the NFL) , will also be without linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard. While Grubb should still be Grubb, he’s also likely to have one less weapon as receiver DK Metcalf on Friday was listed as doubtful to play Sunday with a knee injury,
This seems like a Kenneth Walker III day. Sprinkle in a little Zach Charbonnet and maybe even a dash of Kenny McIntosh. If it doesn’t work right away, Grubb needs to maintain some level of patience with the running game and let it take hold over the course of the game.
Byron Murphy II displacement meter
While there’s a lot more to it than Murphy, the bottom line is the Seahawks are 4-0 when the rookie first-round draft pick plays and 0-3 when he doesn’t. The 6-foot, 306-pound defensive tackle seems to either get into the backfield or command double teams to displace interior lineman and open up opportunities for other front-seven players like Leonard Williams, Derick Hall and Boye Mafe.
“You see with him, he has the ability to do it on every down,” Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde said on Thursday. “I think the areas of growth for him are that when he feels an edge of a rush to take it quicker, to have that ability to get himself through the gap faster, use his hands, rip to the sky, those things I think they’re coming. But since he’s come back I’ve seen a huge jump in him.”
The Seahawks secondary played well last week against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons, and will benefit from the return of Riq Woolen and Tre Brown. The linebacking corps, which has been a mixed bag this year, will have a different look on Sunday with the addition of Ernest Jones IV. Tyrel Dodson is expected to move to weakside linebacker with Jones taking over in the middle.
Murphy and company will need to get pressure against a solid Buffalo offensive line, and the linebackers must make the most of their tackle opportunities against Bill quarterback Josh Allen, who is a physical threat as a runner.
“I think you have to rush as one, you can’t take the liberties that sometimes you might be able to take versus another quarterback,” Macdonald said.
Right tackle replacement meter
Michael Jerrell, who was playing football at Findlay — yes, the University of Findlay does in fact have a Division II football team — started against the Falcons and played a solid game. The rookie sixth-round pick will start again this week.
“Mike’s going to start again and we’re confident in him,” Macdonald said of Jerrell. “He has had another really good week of practice and the message to him is like, ‘Hey, all the people that said you couldn’t play last week are the same ones saying that you’re really great this week. So no offense, but the only opinion that really matters is the guys that are playing next to you at this point.'”
Tackle George Fant, who started the season opener, returned to practices from the IR this week. It seems he’s likely to be added to the active roster prior to the game, and would serve as a backup tackle this week. Abe Lucas, who started the past two seasons, has returned to practice but will need more time to get game-ready.
Bonus key: Devon Witherspoon. He’s played well. If his name hasn’t been heard, it’s because the receivers he covers aren’t getting targeted much. An interception for forced fumble could be the difference in this game.
The pick: Seahawks 24, Bills 20
Categorized:Seahawks
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